Foresights

Roubini is not “Dr. Doom” or a perma-bear; he is Dr. Realist. Most of his predictions about economic and financial stresses have been proven correct. Across the ten points below, he has often been more optimistic than consensus, and his challenges to pessimistic conventional wisdom have been proven right. He rigorously weighs upside and downside risks and delivers a clear, realistic read of economies, economic policy, and markets.

EXPLORE HIS LANDMARK FORESIGHTS

Defends the dollar’s global primacy

Argues that the “exorbitant privilege” of the U.S. dollar will continue, supported by equity inflows and America’s long-term growth outlook.

Roubini argued that as long as American economic exceptionalism remains, the “exorbitant privilege” conferred by the dollar’s global primacy is unlikely to erode.

2025
Reaffirms American exceptionalism will continue.

Foresees a tech-driven secular boom, with U.S. innovation outpacing the drag of tariffs and protectionism.

The positive effects of technology will always trump the negative effects of tariffs, Roubini argued that the era of US economic exceptionalism is not over.

2025
Challenged Trump-era recession calls

Against consensus, predicted a slowdown-not a full recession-amid tariffs and policy shocks.

Roubini has again recently challenged the new pessimistic conventional wisdom about the US and the global economy that followed the re-election of Donald Trump and his protectionist policies in 2025.

2024
Warned of “Megathreats”

Stagflation, deglobalization, populism, climate change, pandemics and new technologies of the future reshaping the 2020s.

Roubini has correctly assessed both the downside risks and threats to the global economy as well as the upsides deriving from the ongoing technological innovations.

2022
Balanced China fears with realism

Rejected hard-landing doom, instead forecasting a “bumpy landing” as growth slowed but stabilized.

In the summer of 2015 and again in early 2016 a sharp correction of Chinese equities led to the concern that China – at a peak of a housing and investment bubble that had led to excessive debt and leverage – would face a hard landing with a recession and a financial crisis.

2014
Defied the “Grexit” consensus

Argued Greece would remain in the Eurozone-proven right when the union held together.

During the Greek financial crisis there was an open debate on whether Greece would be forced to leave the Eurozone, or Grexit. At the peak of the Greek crisis the consensus even among sell side research analysis on Wall Street and among European analysts was that Grexit was the baseline scenario, i.e. that Greece would choose or be forced to leave the Eurozone.

2009
Saw the Global Financial Crisis before it hit

Warned the U.S. housing bubble and subprime excesses would trigger a banking collapse and global recession, the effects of which reverberated worldwide.

Nouriel Roubini is best known for having predicted the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007-09.
He was indeed one of the very few who, already in the middle of 2006, predicted that the US housing bubble and subprime excesses would lead to housing and mortgage bust.

2008
Decoded Asia’s meltdown

Framed the Asian crisis not as fiscal mismanagement, but as a private debt and currency mismatch bust.

In 1997-98 he was one of the few economists who provided a theoretical and empirical understanding of the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC).

1996
Called the EMS currency crisis early

Forecasted stresses in the European Monetary System years ahead of the turmoil.

In the early 1990s he wrote extensively about the stresses that the then EMS (European Monetary System) would face given divergent economic and policy trends that led in 1992 to the currency crises within the EMS.

1989