The US Treasury’s Backdoor Stimulus Is Hampering the Fed
The US Treasury’s debt-issuance polices have become a powerful form of policy easing. By shortening its issuance profile to reduce long-term interest rates, the Treasury has delivered economic stimulus equivalent to a one-point cut to the Fed’s policy rate, impeding...
Would the French Far Right Moderate Once in Power?
If National Rally were to secure an absolute majority in the French National Assembly, it could of course try to carry out its far-right vision of reckless fiscal expansion and anti-EU unilateralism. But if it is smart, it would offer a more disciplined fiscal-policy...
China Confronts the Middle-Income Trap
While China obviously needs to boost private-sector confidence and revive growth with a more sustainable economic model, it is not clear that Chinese leaders fully appreciate the challenges they face. The shift back to state capitalism over the last decade is plainly...
Trump and the Global Economic Risk Picture
Although the world is beset by wars, rising great-power tensions, and other geopolitical risks, most of these factors have not radically affected the outlook for economies and markets in the near term. But that could change if the United States returns to an...
Artificial Intelligence vs. Human Stupidity
There is no shortage of hope - and hype - about what artificial intelligence could do for productivity and economic growth in the future. But we must bear in mind that our politics have proven too dysfunctional, and our policies too misguided, to manage even the most...
Where Will the Global Economy Land in 2024?
Heading into 2024, most economists and market analysts have adopted a baseline scenario in which most major economies avoid both a recession and renewed inflation - the much-desired "soft landing." But the current encouraging consensus could still be derailed by any...
Our Megathreatened Age
It is now common knowledge that economic, monetary, and financial threats are rising and interacting in dangerous ways with various other social, political, geopolitical, environmental, health, and technological developments. And there is little reason to believe that...
The Economic Consequences of the Gaza War
With Israel embarked on a military campaign to eliminate Hamas from Gaza, it remains to be seen whether the conflict will escalate into a broader regional war. If it does, the global economic fallout could include a 1970s-style...
What Climate Finance Needs
To prevent catastrophic climate change and accelerate the global transition to a net-zero economy, policymakers and asset owners urgently need to rethink how we channel capital at scale. The key is to develop new financial...
Preventing a US-China War
China and America both need to pursue policies that will reduce economic and geopolitical tensions and foster healthy cooperation on global challenges. If they fail to achieve a new understanding on the issues driving their current confrontation, they will eventually...