A Mild Global Contraction Is Coming
EW YORK – There are currently four scenarios for the global economic outlook. Three of these entail potentially serious risks with far-reaching implications for markets. The most positive is a “soft landing,” where central banks in the advanced economies manage to bring inflation back down to their 2% targets without triggering a recession. There is […]
Israel’s Slippery Slope
TEL AVIV – My current visit to Israel has coincided with a period of unprecedented political turmoil. A radical right-wing government’s package of legislation to disempower the judiciary has started to be adopted, leading many to worry that this great country’s robust liberal democracy is being eroded. Since Israel lacks a formal written constitution, it […]
Preventing a US-China War
NEW YORK – The United States and China remain on a collision course. The new cold war between them may eventually turn hot over the issue of Taiwan. The “Thucydides Trap” – in which a rising power seems destined to clash with an incumbent hegemon – looms ominously. But a serious escalation of Sino-American tensions, let alone […]
What Climate Finance Needs
NEW YORK – As we move from UN Climate Week to COP28 in Dubai later this year, we must stop the “greenwishing” and “greenwashing” and start thinking about the instruments that will enable the private sector and private investors to channel more capital toward climate resilience and sustainable development. While the public sector has an […]
The Economic Consequences of the Gaza War
NEW YORK – Hamas’s barbaric massacre of at least 1,400 Israelis on October 7, and Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza to eradicate the group, has introduced four geopolitical scenarios bearing on the global economy and markets. As is often the case with such shocks, optimism may prove misguided. In the first scenario, the war […]
Our Megathreatened Age
NEW YORK – Since the publication of Megathreats in October 2022, the themes I emphasized have gone mainstream. Everyone now acknowledges that economic, monetary, and financial threats are rising and interacting in dangerous ways with various other social, political, geopolitical, environmental, health, and technological developments. Hence, in December 2022, the Financial Times chose “polycrisis” as one of its buzzwords of […]
Where Will the Global Economy Land in 2024?
NEW YORK – Around this time a year ago, about 85% of economists and market analysts – including me – expected that the US and global economy would suffer a recession. Falling but still-sticky inflation suggested that monetary policy would grow tighter before rapidly easing once the recession hit; stock markets would fall, and bond yields would […]
Artificial Intelligence vs. Human Stupidity
NEW YORK – Since returning from this year’s World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, I have been asked repeatedly for my biggest takeaways. Among the most widely discussed issues this year was artificial intelligence – especially generative AI (“GenAI”). With the recent adoption of large language models (like the one powering ChatGPT), there is much […]
Trump and the Global Economic Risk Picture
NEW YORK – We have entered a period of intensifying geopolitical rivalries and conflicts. Russia’s war on Ukraine is now in its third year; the Israel-Hamas conflict could still become a regional war; and the deepening cold war between the United States and China may yet turn hot over Taiwan sometime this decade. If Donald […]
China Confronts the Middle-Income Trap
NEW YORK – At this year’s China Development Forum (the highest-level annual meeting between senior Chinese policymakers and top CEOs, current and former policymakers, and academics like me), the discussion focused squarely on the risk of China falling into the dreaded “middle-income trap.” After all, few emerging economies have successfully joined the ranks of high-income […]