The Outlook for the US Economy in 2026
NEW YORK – This has been a bumpy year for the US economy. Although there was a massive boom in AI-related investments, uncertainties caused by President Donald Trump’s tariffs and other polices curtailed growth in the second half of the year, and disruptions to official employment and inflation data as a result of the longest-ever […]
Argentina Is on a Path to Economic Success
NEW YORK – Heading into Argentina’s legislative elections this month, commentary about the country’s economic and financial prospects was growing increasingly pessimistic. With a significant amount of foreign debt coming due next year, the conventional wisdom was that an exchange-rate-based stabilization program – letting the currency depreciate by less than the inflation rate to push […]
The US Economy Will Thrive in Spite of Trumponomics
NEW YORK – Since Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” on April 2, when he announced sweeping trade tariffs on friend and foe alike, the conventional wisdom about the US economy’s short-term and medium- to long-term prospects has been pessimistic. Higher tariffs will cause a US and global recession; US exceptionalism is over; America’s fiscal and current-account […]
Money Will Not Be Revolutionized
NEW YORK – What does the future hold for money and payment systems? While it will surely feature unprecedented technologies, foreseeing the full picture requires historical context. Traditionally, money and payment systems have run on a combination of base money (issued by a central bank) and private-sector money, typically issued by commercial banks through demand […]