Foresees a tech-driven secular boom, with U.S. innovation outpacing the drag of tariffs and protectionism.

The positive effects of technology will always trump the negative effects of tariffs, Roubini argued that the era of US economic exceptionalism is not over.

Roubini pointed out that the US is ahead of everyone – including China – in most of the revolutionary innovations that will define the future. The key technologies and industries of the future are : AI/Gen AI, ML, Digital Twins, Agentic AI, semi-sentient machines, Causal ML leading to AGI by 2030 or earlier; robotics and automation including massive emergence of humanoid robots; bio-med research and synthetic biology increasing human health and longevity; quantum computing and its eventual merger with AI; space exploration and exploitation; AI-led semi-autonomous weapon systems for a new era of warfare and related defense tech; Ag-tech; fusion energy more than renewable may help to resolve climate change; green tech and new frontiers of geo-engineering; mobility revolution with semi or fully autonomous vehicles; fin-tech with most of it not based on DLT; new material science leading to new materials and types of manufacturing; cybersecurity and new forms of cryptography.

Accordingly, United States potential annual growth is likely to increase from 2% to 4% by the end of the decade, before rising much higher in the 2030s.

Suppose that new technologies increase its potential growth by 200 basis points while trade and other bad policies reduce it by 50 bps; America would remain exceptional. It is America’s uniquely dynamic private sector, not Trump’s policies, that will determine the future growth outlook. If potential growth does accelerate toward 4% over time, US public and external debts as a share of GDP will prove sustainable, stabilizing and then falling over time (unless there is even greater fiscal recklessness). While the Congressional Budget Office projects a rising public debt-to-GDP ratio, that is because it assumes that US potential growth will peak at 1.8%.

Thus, Roubini has argued that the conventional wisdom that the US public and external debts are unsustainable is partly misguided if one takes a medium-long term view.