Clouds Over 2022

Clouds Over 2022

Although major economies and markets fared well in 2021 despite all of the uncertainties surrounding new variants of the coronavirus, 2022 will bring new challenges. In addition to central banks shifting toward policy normalization, geopolitical and systemic risks are...
What South Africa Must Do

What South Africa Must Do

NOURIEL ROUBINI, COLIN COLEMAN Locked in a low-growth trap, South Africa’s fiscal and macroeconomic situation is unsustainable, not only economically but also politically. To salvage the country’s democratic project, the government must offer a...
Goldilocks Is Dying

Goldilocks Is Dying

Given today’s high debt ratios, supply-side risks, and ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, the rosy scenario that is currently priced into financial markets may turn out to be a pipe dream. Over the medium term, a variety of persistent negative supply shocks...
The Stagflation Threat Is Real

The Stagflation Threat Is Real

There is a growing consensus that the US economy’s inflationary pressures and growth challenges are attributable largely to temporary supply bottlenecks that will be alleviated in due course. But there are plenty of reasons to think the optimists will be disappointed....