A Stagflationary Debt Crisis Looms

A Stagflationary Debt Crisis Looms

There is ample reason to worry that major economies like the United States are heading for a recession, accompanied by cascading financial turmoil. Some of the worst elements of both the 1970s and the 2008 crash are now in play, with equity markets likely to move...
Don’t Bet on a Soft Landing

Don’t Bet on a Soft Landing

With “Team Persistent” having clearly prevailed over “Team Transitory” in the debate over the nature of today’s surging inflation, the question now is whether prices can be tamed without also causing a recession. The historical evidence suggests not, leaving central...
The Gathering Stagflationary Storm

The Gathering Stagflationary Storm

While recent shocks have made the current inflationary surge and growth slowdown more acute, they are hardly the global economy’s only problems. Even without them, the medium-term outlook would be darkening, owing to a broad range of economic, political,...
Is the New Stagflation Policy-Proof?

Is the New Stagflation Policy-Proof?

Like the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine has contributed to the stagflationary pressures in the United States and other advanced economies. While fiscal and monetary authorities currently have the situation under control, they are likely to run up...
Russia’s War and the Global Economy

Russia’s War and the Global Economy

It is tempting to think that the war in Ukraine will have only a minor economic and financial impact globally, given that Russia represents merely 3% of the world economy. But policymakers and financial analysts need to avoid such wishful thinking. NEW YORK – In late...
Clouds Over 2022

Clouds Over 2022

Although major economies and markets fared well in 2021 despite all of the uncertainties surrounding new variants of the coronavirus, 2022 will bring new challenges. In addition to central banks shifting toward policy normalization, geopolitical and systemic risks are...