The Age of Megathreats

The Age of Megathreats

For four decades after World War II, climate change and job-displacing artificial intelligence were not on anyone’s mind, and terms like “deglobalization” and “trade war” had no purchase. But now we are entering a new era that will more...
The Stagflationary Debt Crisis Is Here

The Stagflationary Debt Crisis Is Here

The Great Moderation has given way to the Great Stagflation, which will be characterized by instability and a confluence of slow-motion negative supply shocks. US and global equities are already back in a bear market, and the scale of the crisis that awaits has not...
A Stagflationary Debt Crisis Looms

A Stagflationary Debt Crisis Looms

There is ample reason to worry that major economies like the United States are heading for a recession, accompanied by cascading financial turmoil. Some of the worst elements of both the 1970s and the 2008 crash are now in play, with equity markets likely to move...
Don’t Bet on a Soft Landing

Don’t Bet on a Soft Landing

With “Team Persistent” having clearly prevailed over “Team Transitory” in the debate over the nature of today’s surging inflation, the question now is whether prices can be tamed without also causing a recession. The historical evidence...