The Stagflationary Debt Crisis Is Here

The Stagflationary Debt Crisis Is Here

The Great Moderation has given way to the Great Stagflation, which will be characterized by instability and a confluence of slow-motion negative supply shocks. US and global equities are already back in a bear market, and the scale of the crisis that awaits has not...
A Stagflationary Debt Crisis Looms

A Stagflationary Debt Crisis Looms

There is ample reason to worry that major economies like the United States are heading for a recession, accompanied by cascading financial turmoil. Some of the worst elements of both the 1970s and the 2008 crash are now in play, with equity markets likely to move...
Don’t Bet on a Soft Landing

Don’t Bet on a Soft Landing

With “Team Persistent” having clearly prevailed over “Team Transitory” in the debate over the nature of today’s surging inflation, the question now is whether prices can be tamed without also causing a recession. The historical evidence...
The Gathering Stagflationary Storm

The Gathering Stagflationary Storm

While recent shocks have made the current inflationary surge and growth slowdown more acute, they are hardly the global economy’s only problems. Even without them, the medium-term outlook would be darkening, owing to a broad range of economic, political,...