A Mild Global Contraction Is Coming

A Mild Global Contraction Is Coming

While a severe hurricane for the global economy looks less likely than a few months ago, we are still likely to encounter a tropical storm that could cause significant damage. Much will depend on how major central banks confront the trilemma of simultaneously...
The Coming Doom Loop

The Coming Doom Loop

In the face of high and persistent inflation, recession risks, and now a looming insolvency crisis in the financial sector, central banks like the US Federal Reserve are facing a trilemma. Unable to fight inflation and provide liquidity support simultaneously, the...
India at a Crossroads

India at a Crossroads

Sound policymaking has helped India modernize and achieve robust economic growth, positioning it to become an increasingly important player on the world stage. But recent developments – and scandals – show that the government must address some major issues...
Sleepwalking on Megathreat Mountain

Sleepwalking on Megathreat Mountain

Whatever one’s favored terminology for describing the current moment, there is widespread agreement that we are facing unprecedented, unusual, and unexpected levels of uncertainty, auguring a future of crisis, instability, and conflict. But whether we will...