Regardless of whether one agrees with Israeli political and military leaders' assessment of the threat posed by Iran, a further escalation of the conflict between the two countries is now highly likely. Policymakers and financial risk managers may be hoping for the...

Although some of Kamala Harris’s policy proposals remain vague, there is little question that her fiscal, trade, climate, immigration, currency, and China policies would be quite different from her opponent’s. Donald Trump’s agenda is much more likely to cause...

The US Treasury’s debt-issuance polices have become a powerful form of policy easing. By shortening its issuance profile to reduce long-term interest rates, the Treasury has delivered economic stimulus equivalent to a one-point cut to the Fed’s policy rate, impeding...

If National Rally were to secure an absolute majority in the French National Assembly, it could of course try to carry out its far-right vision of reckless fiscal expansion and anti-EU unilateralism. But if it is smart, it would offer a more disciplined fiscal-policy...

While China obviously needs to boost private-sector confidence and revive growth with a more sustainable economic model, it is not clear that Chinese leaders fully appreciate the challenges they face. The shift back to state capitalism over the last decade is plainly...

Although the world is beset by wars, rising great-power tensions, and other geopolitical risks, most of these factors have not radically affected the outlook for economies and markets in the near term. But that could change if the United States returns to an...

There is no shortage of hope - and hype - about what artificial intelligence could do for productivity and economic growth in the future. But we must bear in mind that our politics have proven too dysfunctional, and our policies too misguided, to manage even the most...

Heading into 2024, most economists and market analysts have adopted a baseline scenario in which most major economies avoid both a recession and renewed inflation - the much-desired "soft landing." But the current encouraging consensus could still be derailed by any...