In November 2024 Ahead of the US Presidential Election, I Predicted the Current Military Escalation Between Israel and Iran Correctly
In “Israel and Iran are Likely to Escalate,” I predicted then the current military escalation and that Israel would attack Iran’s nuclear facilities and even attempt regime change.
Joe Biden’s Activist Treasury Issuance Continues Under Donald Trump
Despite past criticism by Bessent and Miran, the debt strategy persists for now and is spreading internationally The rise in long-term rates around the world is worrying finance ministries and Treasury departments. Higher rates not only make servicing the rising...
Market Discipline Will Prevail in the US
Ultimately, either US President Donald Trump will back down from his stagflationary policies to concentrate on pro-growth measures, or financial stress and a recession will cause the Republican Party to lose the midterm elections in 2026. Already, Trump’s more...
Tailwinds Will Override Trump and His Tariffs
Following the shock and awe of Donald Trump's return to the White House, it is now clear that his most destructive economic policies will be contained by market, institutional, and structural forces. Moreover, underlying trends should position the United States for...
The Impact of the “Liberation” Day Tariffs on the US and Global Economy and Markets. Rising Short Run Risk of a Recession but Over the Medium Term “Tech Trumps Tariffs”
The announced April 2nd tariffs were much worse than most analysts and markets expected; thus, on Thursday April 3rd US equity markets were way down (with losses btw 4% and 6% on main indices and Friday markets showing further losses as China has started to retaliate)...
Toward a North American Economic Union
To resolve their current tensions, Canada, Mexico, and the United States should start drafting plans for a North American Economic Union. A single market in goods, services, capital, labor, technology, data, and information would benefit all three countries far more...
The DeepSeek Surprise/Shock
In my modest opinion the DeepSeek surprise/shock is - counterintuitively - over time bullish for US and global stocks as it is another positive global aggregate supply shock that increases US/global potential growth and makes exponential AI even more exponential! So...
The Good, the Bad, and the Uncertainty of the Trump Economy
Given the economic, financial, and political constraints that Donald Trump is likely to face if he pursues his most radical and ill-advised economic policy proposals, the near-term outlook for the US economy heading into 2025 is relatively benign. Overall, the good...
Israel and Iran are Likely to Escalate
Regardless of whether one agrees with Israeli political and military leaders' assessment of the threat posed by Iran, a further escalation of the conflict between the two countries is now highly likely. Policymakers and financial risk managers may be hoping for the...
Kamala Harris’s Economic Priorities
Although some of Kamala Harris’s policy proposals remain vague, there is little question that her fiscal, trade, climate, immigration, currency, and China policies would be quite different from her opponent’s. Donald Trump’s agenda is much more likely to cause...