From Great Moderation to Great Stagflation
For decades, relative global stability, sound economic-policy management, and the steady expansion of trade to and from emerging markets combined to keep costs down. But now all these conditions have been overturned, and the world is settling into a dangerous and...
A Stagflationary Debt Crisis Looms
There is ample reason to worry that major economies like the United States are heading for a recession, accompanied by cascading financial turmoil. Some of the worst elements of both the 1970s and the 2008 crash are now in play, with equity markets likely to move...
Don’t Bet on a Soft Landing
With “Team Persistent†having clearly prevailed over “Team Transitory†in the debate over the nature of today’s surging inflation, the question now is whether prices can be tamed without...
The Gathering Stagflationary Storm
While recent shocks have made the current inflationary surge and growth slowdown more acute, they are hardly the global economy’s only problems. Even without them, the medium-term outlook would be darkening, owing to a broad range of economic,...
Is the New Stagflation Policy-Proof?
Like the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's war in Ukraine has contributed to the stagflationary pressures in the United States and other advanced economies. While fiscal and monetary authorities currently have the situation under control, they are likely to run up against...
Russia’s War and the Global Economy
It is tempting to think that the war in Ukraine will have only a minor economic and financial impact globally, given that Russia represents merely 3% of the world economy. But policymakers and financial analysts need to avoid such wishful thinking. NEW YORK...
Clouds Over 2022
Although major economies and markets fared well in 2021 despite all of the uncertainties surrounding new variants of the coronavirus, 2022 will bring new challenges. In addition to central banks shifting toward policy normalization, geopolitical and systemic risks are...
Why Italy’s Presidential Election Matters
By Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa With its poor track record of managing EU funds, Italy’s recovery plan will be a major test for the future of EU policymaking more generally. While it is widely agreed that Prime Minister Mario Draghi must remain on...
What South Africa Must Do
NOURIEL ROUBINI, COLIN COLEMAN Locked in a low-growth trap, South Africa's fiscal and macroeconomic situation is unsustainable, not only economically but also politically. To salvage the country's democratic project, the government must offer a credible,...
Goldilocks Is Dying
Given today’s high debt ratios, supply-side risks, and ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, the rosy scenario that is currently priced into financial markets may turn out to be a pipe dream. Over the medium term, a variety of persistent...